EARLY SEASON OUTLOOK: (updated 16th of April @ 09:16:34AM)
Current observations show that we are still in a neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) state. Models are showing that this neutral pattern will continue for the remainder of autumn and into early winter.
Ocean temperatures around most of Australia are warmer than average. This may mean increased rainfall across the SE of the country as well as warm nights during May which could lessen the chances of the resorts using the snow makers to create an early base. Heavy snowfalls would be unlikely during this early period. As per last season overnight temps should drop quite a bit during June and into July with great conditions for snow making from mid June and some moderate falls likely late June. All in all it’s very close to what happened last season.
Looking at the charts we could see some light snow flurries about the peaks around the 18th-19th of April, maybe even 5-10cm above 1700m on the 18th. The first possible snowfall that may stay on the ground for more than a few hours looks to be between the 2nd and 4th of May, although will more than likely be above 1650-1700m. There is a nice big system due somewhere between the 11th-15th of May that could see the first 10cm+ fall….fingers crossed this stays on track.
Thanks to Pete the frog Taylor for this forecast. www.snowatch.com.au