Rain today, but snow on the horizon….

Thanks to the Grasshopper at MountainWatch.

The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei “The Grasshopper”. The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won’t agree exactly with the model data – but if we ever call something significantly different we’ll do our best to explain why.

Sunday 14 July 2013

Conditions Summary:
The rain is underway in Victoria and we have fairly strong northerly winds to boot. NSW is picking up the winds, but could be waiting the rest of the day for the rain to properly arrive.

Synoptic Outlook:
Our low, AKA Public enemy #1, is now lying south of Adelaide and west of Tasmania. Its leading edge of wind, cloud and rain is running down through central Victoria.

The heaviest rain hits VIC resorts from this afternoon until early tomorrow morning. For NSW it’s tomorrow morning. I’m hoping we’ll get away with 20 to 30mm at Hotham and Falls and 10 to 20mm at Perisher and Thredbo, but you never know when one of these events is going to hit the sweet spot and double up on the forecast.

From Monday afternoon into Tuesday we take a break from rain, but not for long. By Wednesday we’ll see northerlies strengthening and one or two showers creeping in ahead of some drama Thursday. Read on to the extended outlook below.

Sunday 14 July:
Northerlies. Rain for VIC but possibly holding off till late in NSW.

Monday 15 July:
Northerlies. Rain clearing.

Tuesday 16 July:
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 17 July:
Northerlies strengthening. Cloud increasing. Chance of a shower or two.

Extended Outlook:
Rain from another low will turn to snow late Thursday or during Friday as the low passes into the Tasman. That snow continues on and off until next Tuesday with 10 to 30cm accumulating. There’s a lot of disagreement among models about the shape of the southerly flow we get, and so a lot of uncertainty about snowfall.

That’s all from the Grasshopper. Got a question or feedback for me? Hit me up at grasshoppermw@gmail.com or join in the Facebook discussion below.